Picture a steel mill in India selling hot-rolled coil to a buyer in Italy. Until last year, the price of that coil was steel, freight and duty. Since 1 January 2026 there is a fourth line: the carbon released when the steel was made.
That line is CBAM. Brussels spent two years testing it. From October 2023 to the end of 2025, importers only had to report emissions. Nothing was charged. That trial is over, and the charge now runs on every covered tonne that crossed the border this year.
The strange part is that no one has paid a cent so far. The certificates that settle the bill do not go on sale until 1 February 2027. So for most of 2026 the cost has been building quietly, in importers' books, while the goods kept moving.
Who has to act
The line is drawn at 50 tonnes a year, per importer, counted across the whole year rather than per shipment. Under that, nothing applies. Over it, everything does, including the first 50 tonnes. The Commission looked at the threshold again on 30 September and left it at 50.
An importer over the line needs the status of authorised CBAM declarant. It must report the emissions embedded in its goods and hand over one certificate for each tonne of CO₂.
What a certificate costs
For 2026 imports, the price is set each quarter from the average of EU carbon auctions. The third-quarter figure, published on 5 October, was the highest of the year.
| Quarter | Price | Published |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | €75.36 | 7 April 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | €75.28 | 6 July 2026 |
| Q3 2026 | €82.32 | 5 October 2026 |
| Q4 2026 | due | 4 January 2027 |
From 2027 the price is published every week instead of every quarter.
Why the bill is small now, and won't stay small
European steelmakers still get most of their carbon permits free. CBAM mirrors that, so importers pay only the share that EU producers are paying themselves. In 2026 that share is 2.5%.
It does not stay there. The share climbs every year: 22.5% in 2029, 48.5% in 2030, and 100% from 2034, when free permits for these sectors end.
Those numbers are a simplified example, so here is the working. Assume a tonne of blast-furnace steel carries 2 tonnes of CO₂. The real figure depends on the mill and the route, which is the point of the whole system.
| Year | Share payable | Bill for 1,000 t | Per tonne |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5% | €4,116 | €4.12 |
| 2030 | 48.5% | €79,850 | €79.85 |
| 2034 | 100% | €164,640 | €164.64 |
A simplified illustration, not a calculation for any real entry. The actual adjustment uses EU benchmarks, and a carbon price already paid in the country of origin can be deducted.
At 2026 levels, nobody's margin breaks. By 2030, a steel buyer is looking at something close to €80 a tonne. That is enough to decide which mill gets the order.
The data is the cost
If a supplier cannot give verified emissions for its plant, the importer has to use the EU's default values. Those defaults are not kind. They carry a mark-up of 10% in 2026, rising to 20% in 2027. A cleaner mill that cannot prove it is clean gets billed like a dirty one.
That turns emissions data into a commercial term. Mills in Türkiye, India, China and Ukraine that can hand over verified, plant-level numbers have something their competitors don't.
Screws, bolts and furniture next
Today CBAM stops at basic metal. A mill can roll the steel, a factory next door can turn it into bolts, and the bolts enter Europe with no carbon charge at all.
Brussels wants to close that. In December 2025 the Commission proposed adding about 180 steel- and aluminium-heavy products, including screws, bolts, wire, tubes and metal furniture, from 1 January 2028. EU governments agreed their position in June and the European Parliament its own in September. The first round of final negotiations is set for 20 October. It is not law yet, but the direction is clear.
What to do now
- If you import into the EU: add up your 2026 tonnes. Over 50, plan the cash for certificates between February and September 2027. From 2027, you must also hold certificates covering at least half of the year's emissions at the end of every quarter.
- If you sell into the EU: measure and verify your plant's emissions. Your customer pays more without them.
- If you sell metal products, not raw metal: watch the October talks. Your goods may be on the 2028 list.
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